File:Global sea level rise projections 2000-2100.png

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English: This graph shows projections of global sea level rise (SLR) by 2100, compared to 2000. It is based on several studies. Projections range from 18 to 200.8 cm.

Projections

Projections are for the late-21st-century (2090-2099), relative to the late-20th-century (1980-1999).

AR4

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projected sea level rise in its Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4 SYR, 2007).[1] Projections suggest SLR of between 18-59 cm. IPCC AR4 SYR (2007)[1] state: "Because understanding of some important effects driving sea level rise is too limited, this report does not assess the likelihood, nor provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise." According to the US National Research Council (US NRC, 2012),[2] "the [AR4] projections are likely underestimates because they do not account fully for cryospheric processes".

US NRC 2011

US NRC (2011)[3] project SLR of about 50-100 cm.

Horton et al.

Projections of SLR by Horton et al. (2008)[4] range from 47-100 cm. According to Horton et al. (2008):[5] "[the] projections described here are likely to underestimate future sea level rise if recent trends in the polar regions accelerate."

Grinsted et al.

Grinsted et al. (2009)[6] made several projections of SLR. Assuming moderate growth in future greenhouse gas emissions (the SRES "A1B" scenario), sea level is projected to rise by 91-132 cm. This projection is based on a historical temperature reconstruction by Moberg et al. (2005)[7] (referred to by Grinsted et al., 2009).[6]

US NRC (2012)

US NRC (2012)[8] project SLR of 82.7 cm, with an error range of ±10.6 cm. Their lower and upper projections of SLR are 50.4 cm and 140.2 cm, respectively. US NRC (2012)[9] state: "No formal probability analysis of the individual contributors of uncertainty was performed, so the projections are not necessarily the likeliest outcomes, and the ranges are not the highest or lowest possibilities."

Jevrejeva et al.

Jevrejeva et al. (2012)[10] project SLR using four of the "RCP" emissions scenarios. For these scenarios, SLR projections range from 57-110 cm (median estimates), with an error range (5-95% confidence intervals) of 36-165 cm.

Vermeer and Rahmstorf

Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009)[11] (referred to by US NRC, 2012)[8] project SLR of 121 cm, with a range of 78-175 cm.[12]

Pfeffer et al.

Pfeffer et al. (2008)[13] project SLR of 78.5-200.8 cm. According to Pfeffer et al. (2008):[14] "increases in excess of 2 meters are physically untenable. We find that a total sea-level rise of about 2 meters by 2100 could occur under physically possible glaciological conditions but only if all variables are quickly accelerated to extremely high limits. More plausible but still accelerated conditions lead to total sea-level rise by 2100 of about 0.8 meter."

Notes

  1. ↑ a b 3 Projected climate change and its impacts, in: Summary for Policymakers, archive copy at the Wayback Machine in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007
  2. ↑ Ch 5: Projections of Sea-Level Change, in US NRC 2012, p. 88
  3. ↑ Summary of Sea Level Change, in: Ch 4: Physical Climate Change in the 21st Century, in: US NRC 2011, p. 153
  4. ↑ Results, in Horton & others 2008, p. 2
  5. ↑ Abstract, in Horton & others 2008, p. 1
  6. ↑ a b Table 2, in Grinsted & others 2009, p. 7
  7. ↑ Moberg & others 2005
  8. ↑ a b TABLE 5.2, in: Ch 5: Projections of Sea-Level Change, in US NRC 2012, p. 89
  9. ↑ Discussion of Global Projections, in: Ch 5: Projections of Sea-Level Change, in US NRC 2012, p. 92
  10. ↑ Table 3, in Jevrejeva & others 2012, p. 17
  11. ↑ Vermeer & Rahmstorf 2009
  12. ↑ The projections cited by US NRC (2012) differ from those in the original paper by Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009). This is presumably because US NRC (2012) use a different base period for their projections. US NRC (2012) use a base period of 2000-2100, while Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) use a base period of 1990-2100.
  13. ↑ Table 3, in Pfeffer & others 2008, p. 1342
  14. ↑ Abstract, in Pfeffer & others 2008, p. 1340

References

  • Grinsted, A., et al. (2009), “Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100AD”, in Clim. Dyn.[1], doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2
  • Horton, R., et al. (2008), “Sea level rise projections for current generation CGCMs based on the semi-empirical method”, in Geophysical Research Letters[2], volume 35, doi: 10.1029/2007GL032486, 2008, L02715. Paper at NASA GISS.
  • IPCC AR4 SYR (2007), Core Writing Team; Pachauri, R.K; and Reisinger, A., editors, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (SYR). Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[3], Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, ISBN 92-9169-122-4
  • Jevrejeva, S., et al. (2012), “Sea Projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios”, in Global and Planetary Change[4], volume 80-81, doi: 10.1029/2007GL032486, 2008, L02715. Paper available at John Moore's website (Professor, Arctic Centre, University of Lapland; Chief Scientist, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University)
  • Moberg, A., et al. (2005-02-10), “Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data”, in Nature[5], volume 433, doi: 10.1038/nature03265, pp.613-317. Data available from NOAA.
  • Pfeffer, W.T., et al. (2008), “Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st century sea-level rise”, in Science[6], volume 321, issue 5894, doi: 10.1126/science.1159099.
  • US NRC (2011) Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia[7], Washington, D.C., USA: National Academies Press, ISBN 978-0-309-15176-4
  • US NRC (2012) Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future[8], Washington, D.C., USA: National Academies Press, ISBN 978-0-309-25594-3
  • Vermeer, M., and S. Rahmstorf (2009-12-22), “Global sea level linked to global temperature”, in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences[9], volume 106, issue 51, DOI:10.1073/pnas.0907765106, pages 21,527-21,532, issue: 51.
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Licensing

[edit]
I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:
Creative Commons CC-Zero This file is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication.
The person who associated a work with this deed has dedicated the work to the public domain by waiving all of their rights to the work worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law. You can copy, modify, distribute and perform the work, even for commercial purposes, all without asking permission.

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[edit]

Data are given below as comma-separated values (CSV). The data were exported from OpenOffice 3.4.1 Calc using the following options (enclosed in braces): Character set: {Western Europe (Windows-1252/WinLatin}; Field delimiter: {,}; text delimiter: {"}. 

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Licensing

[edit]
I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:
Creative Commons CC-Zero This file is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication.
The person who associated a work with this deed has dedicated the work to the public domain by waiving all of their rights to the work worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law. You can copy, modify, distribute and perform the work, even for commercial purposes, all without asking permission.

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