File:Korona ennuste oletuksin 1.svg
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Summary
[edit]DescriptionKorona ennuste oletuksin 1.svg |
Suomi: Korona-ennuste oletuksin. |
Date | |
Source | Own work |
Author | Merikanto |
-
- over-simplistic simulation of covid 19 finland epidemy effects
- 29.6.2021 0000.0001
- Diagrams about the COVID-19 pandemic in Finland
-
import math as math
import numpy as np
import scipy as sp
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.dates as mdates
from matplotlib.ticker import NullFormatter
from matplotlib.dates import MonthLocator, DateFormatter
alkupaivamaara='2021-06-29' ## simulaation alkupvm
aikamaara=90
tapauksia_alussa=110
sairaalassa_alussa=29
teholla_alussa=5
kuolleita_yhteensa_alussa=970
tapauksia_yhteensa_alussa=95168
paivittaisia_kuolleita_alussa=1
huippuaika=30
ro_alussa=1.15
laskuro=0.85
tau=5.0
times1 = pd.date_range(alkupaivamaara , periods=aikamaara, freq='D')
- very basic exponential r0 calculation
def calculate_r0(time1, time2, val1, val2):
k=0
td=time2-time1
gr0=math.log(val2/val1)
gr=gr0/td
if(gr!=0):
td= math.log(2.0)/gr
else:
return(1)
tau=5.0
k=math.log(2.0)/td
r0=math.exp(k*tau)
if(r0==32):
r0=1
if(r0>32):
r0=4
return(r0)
- exp(gr0)=val2/val1
- maara=60
maara=aikamaara
- quit(0)
x=np.linspace(0,maara,maara)
y=np.linspace(0,maara,maara)
dy=np.linspace(0,maara,maara)
cy=np.linspace(0,maara,maara)
ppy=np.linspace(0,maara,maara)
pky=np.linspace(0,maara,maara)
psy=np.linspace(0,maara,maara)
pty=np.linspace(0,maara,maara)
py=np.linspace(0,maara,maara)
ky=np.linspace(0,maara,maara)
sy=np.linspace(0,maara,maara)
ty=np.linspace(0,maara,maara)
ssy=np.linspace(0,maara,maara)
tty=np.linspace(0,maara,maara)
for n in range(0, aikamaara):
ssy[n]=0
sy[n]=0
psy[n]=0
ky[n]=0
pky[n]=0
tty[n]=0
ty[n]=0
pty[n]=0
tapauksia=tapauksia_alussa
ro=ro_alussa
saku=sairaalassa_alussa/tapauksia_alussa
teku=teholla_alussa/tapauksia_alussa
kuku=paivittaisia_kuolleita_alussa/tapauksia_alussa
tapauksiayhteensa=[]
kuolleitayhteensa=[]
ax = plt.gca()
fig = plt.gcf()
fig.set_size_inches(12, 8, forward=True)
kuolleita_yhteensa=kuolleita_yhteensa_alussa
tapauksia_yhteensa=tapauksia_yhteensa_alussa
ro=ro_alussa
tapauksia=tapauksia_alussa
for n in range(0, aikamaara):
dndt=tapauksia*(math.log(ro)/tau)
tapauksia=tapauksia+dndt
#print(n,int(tapauksia), int(dndt), ro)
if(n>huippuaika): ro=laskuro
dy[n]=dndt
y[n]=tapauksia
cy[n]=tapauksia
if (n>9): cy[n]=cy[n-1]+tapauksia
pky[n]=0
ky[n]=tapauksia*kuku
sy[n]=tapauksia*saku
ty[n]=tapauksia*teku
kuolleita_yhteensa=kuolleita_yhteensa+ky[n]
tapauksia_yhteensa=tapauksia_yhteensa+int(tapauksia)
print("Kuolleita yhteensä",kuolleita_yhteensa)
print("Tapauksia yhteensä",tapauksia_yhteensa)
plt.plot(times1,y, "g--", label="Päivittäisiä tapauksia")
plt.plot(times1,sy,color="orange", label="Sairaalassa")
plt.plot(times1,ty, color="red",label="Teholla")
plt.plot(times1,ky, color="black", label="Päivittäisiä kuolleita")
laapeli1="Tartuntoja alussa "+str(tapauksia_alussa) + ". Nousuaika "+ str(huippuaika)+ ". R alussa "+str(ro_alussa) + " , R laskussa "+str(laskuro)
laapeli2="Todettuja tartuntoja lopussa "+str(tapauksia_yhteensa)+", kuolleita lopussa "+str(int(kuolleita_yhteensa))
plt.title("Korona-ennuste (karkein oletuksin)", fontsize=20)
plt.suptitle(laapeli1, fontsize=14,y=1)
plt.figtext(0.5, 0.5, laapeli2, ha="center", fontsize=13, bbox={"facecolor":"orange", "alpha":0.5, "pad":5})
plt.xlabel("Päivämäärä ", fontsize=16)
plt.ylabel("Tapauksia päivässä", fontsize=16)
plt.xticks(fontsize=15 )
plt.yticks(fontsize=15 )
ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%d.%m.'))
plt.legend(fontsize=14)
plt.show()
Licensing
[edit]- You are free:
- to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the work
- to remix – to adapt the work
- Under the following conditions:
- attribution – You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- share alike – If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same or compatible license as the original.
File history
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Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
current | 08:22, 27 July 2021 | 1,119 × 500 (60 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update | |
07:00, 29 June 2021 | 1,095 × 535 (57 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update | ||
06:47, 25 June 2021 | 864 × 487 (58 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | update | ||
12:00, 15 June 2021 | 867 × 540 (59 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | upload | ||
06:52, 26 May 2021 | 778 × 378 (59 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update | ||
09:21, 1 May 2021 | 1,145 × 500 (52 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update | ||
11:26, 8 April 2021 | 990 × 630 (58 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update | ||
13:11, 2 April 2021 | 1,021 × 630 (64 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Ipdate | ||
12:53, 2 April 2021 | 990 × 630 (58 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Update | ||
08:08, 23 March 2021 | 1,066 × 497 (58 KB) | Merikanto (talk | contribs) | Uploaded own work with UploadWizard |
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