File:Covid-19 VOC-202012-01 odds ratio curves by country.png

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Captions

Captions

Growth curves of the Covid-19 UK variant on a logarithmic scale, for multiple countries and UK regions.

Summary

[edit]
Description
English: The odds ratio (left y axis) of B.1.1.7 versus 'wild' variants is expected to grow exponentially; [0.076] means 7.9% growth per day. Dataset dates are publication dates. 'seq' for data from genomic sequnecing; 'SGTF' for PCR-based data (S-Gene Target Failure; less accurate than sequencing), and PCR for a PCR test specifically designed to detect the VOC (Switzerland only). To convert the log slope to ratios of reproduction numbers: with the generation interval (usually assumed 4–6 days). The daily growth factor is . Data sources: DK[1], NL[2][3][4][5], PT[6], CH[7], UK[8], IE[9][10][11].

The logarithmic slopes as indicated are not based on a rigorous uncertainty analysis. Code to generate these graphs: Github/han-kwang.

Note: this graph will be updated with new data. References here will be kept up to date. References in figure captions may be outdated.
Date 2021-01-31, last updated 2021-02-14
Source Own work
Author Hankwang

References

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  1. ↑ Genomic overview of SARS-CoV-2 in Denmark. www.covid19genomics.dk Danish Covid-19 Genome Consortium (2021-01-30). Archived from the original on 2021-12-20. Retrieved on 1 February 2021.
  2. ↑ RIVM (2021-01-16). Advies deel 1 n.a.v. 96e OMT. rijksoverheid.nl. Archived from the original on 2021-01-17. Retrieved on 2021-02-06.
  3. ↑ van Dissel, Jaap (2021-01-20). COVID-19 25e Tweede Kamer briefing 20 jan 2021. tweedekamer.nl. Retrieved on 1 February 2021.
  4. ↑ RIVM (2021-01-31). Advies deel 1 n.a.v. 98e OMT. rijksoverheid.nl. Archived from the original on 2021-02-01. Retrieved on 2021-02-06.
  5. ↑ Ministerie van Volksgezondheid, Welzijn en Sport (2021-02-07). Advies n.a.v. 99e OMT, deel 2 (in nl-NL). www.rijksoverheid.nl. Archived from the original on 2021-02-08. Retrieved on 2021-02-09.
  6. ↑ Borges, Vítor (2021-01-19; updated 2021-02-11). Tracking SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7) dissemination in Portugal: insights from nationwide RT-PCR Spike gene drop out data. virological.org. Retrieved on 14 February 2021. This includes updates at the bottom of the page.
  7. ↑ Genomische Charakterisierung. sciencetaskforce.ch. Retrieved on 14 February 2021.
  8. ↑ European center for disease prevention and Control (ECDC). Risk related to the spread of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the EU/EEA – first update. ecdc.europa.eu. Retrieved on 6 February 2021.
  9. ↑ Department of Health (2021-01-21). NPHET COVID Update 21st January 2021. Retrieved on 2021-02-06.
  10. ↑ Government of Ireland. Department of Health. 28 January 2021. (2021-01-28). Letter from CMO to Minister for Health re COVID-19 (Coronavirus) – 28 January 2021. Retrieved on 2021-02-06.
  11. ↑ Tony Holchan, Chair of the COVID-19 National Public Health Emergency Team (2021-02-04). Letter from CMO to Minister for Health re COVID-19 (Coronavirus) - 4 February 2021. www.gov.ie. Retrieved on 2021-02-14.

Licensing

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I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:
w:en:Creative Commons
attribution share alike
This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.
You are free:
  • to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the work
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Under the following conditions:
  • attribution – You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
  • share alike – If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same or compatible license as the original.

File history

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Date/TimeThumbnailDimensionsUserComment
current13:17, 14 February 2021Thumbnail for version as of 13:17, 14 February 2021882 × 441 (80 KB)Hankwang (talk | contribs)Updated data for DK, PT, CH.
23:03, 8 February 2021Thumbnail for version as of 23:03, 8 February 2021882 × 441 (81 KB)Hankwang (talk | contribs)Updated PT and NL with data for week 3.
17:44, 6 February 2021Thumbnail for version as of 17:44, 6 February 2021882 × 441 (81 KB)Hankwang (talk | contribs)Updated with more recent data. UK regional data is now in a separate image: File:Covid-19 VOC-202012-01 odds ratio curves by UK region.png.
12:54, 31 January 2021Thumbnail for version as of 12:54, 31 January 20211,000 × 550 (173 KB)Hankwang (talk | contribs)Uploaded own work with UploadWizard

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